{
  "protocolVersion": "0.3.0",
  "name": "Reference-Class Forecaster",
  "description": "Gives an outside-view estimate from how similar past cases turned out before allowing any inside-view adjustment.",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "provider": {
    "organization": "The Daily Synthesis",
    "url": "https://johnjboren.github.io"
  },
  "url": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pa/reference-class-forecaster.html",
  "capabilities": {
    "streaming": false,
    "pushNotifications": false,
    "stateTransitionHistory": false
  },
  "defaultInputModes": [
    "text/plain"
  ],
  "defaultOutputModes": [
    "text/plain"
  ],
  "skills": [
    {
      "id": "reference-class-forecaster",
      "name": "Reference-Class Forecaster",
      "description": "Gives an outside-view estimate from how similar past cases turned out before allowing any inside-view adjustment.",
      "tags": [
        "forecasting",
        "outside-view",
        "base-rates",
        "estimation",
        "planning"
      ],
      "examples": [
        "How long until our kitchen remodel is done?"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "x-pocketagent": {
    "spec": "pocketagent-v1",
    "installUrl": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pocketagent-chat.html#pa=H4sIAAAAAAAAE3VUXW_bOBD8Kws9XQHLyIfTNM5DkUvQNDmnPiRuekFxD5S4shlTpEpS9ilF-9s7lK3WyjVvIsXdmZ3Z3a_JKhnvDxIjSk7GyS0X7NjknJ5r4T29s45z4QO7ZJA4q-ObB1tTsb0nWwevJKcrxWsqlPNhQH-JheFSmNSHRvOQ_nZW1jlTWDhmyqyWqRYZa5bkOQ_KGj-kn8iUR-QxRUYk8AIgBVURDIjsyatSaeEoWGRUnqzBOyNpYde44IZEHmqhdUOhdgYg4Eh_4A9J5YNTWR0hXw1pusudfVClCDwmx0LGREjq1-wIMULNF5FGgXsRenko4ygG5agCyZwycwQ2YIYPX3GuhCaRRQ4t21jDkK7ML2QhH2sfSjZhjFpA29juMurcRmwyFSr3A_ARISaPFL162hQvldtI2Z6WzFV8ogLkro1kOaQZnm_dohYXZDZV5gvrTttvZXq_BYU1i-WADK8gRAsYhGvRK6tMGMauqDX7ZPw5OdNr0Xiqem53Bo-fGzz4vfyDF6QB0AXEXXHLotd1pi4zsCucLcEY7um-Qb3uQZ476NdLs6l36yO8a1-mneIkOQilEXgjlrwj03OKndR9P0SMnIFV-D-k2HUAKtvw3IXk30ESxLzVt5s5qI-UuxLgmEXKDoXFCrdiAh2HSgtjYgxSYVQmymCYx8kltITDpq9lZ8NGzThR3bTtDODOWHWiaW3X285_QZ3YKsV_qONrUgP-PVJri4jaBKWRy9FShXzBBg6WVrKODShB-C0Cxe5q6hZEbstKOJFpplLJtB2Fbaw_pdKCr6sNHaZHOJiwQMtZtDHufIzF3Ysr4PtoG_LypDaRMoYeyyEPmFKwzaxdbu2PaRwmHwpDnspxah2WA0uML9aWUyXW11o4SYfDX_SMhSZYOcPkG8zyao6yP31pLlcfrh8uZ1ePN-Fodv_nZFGd7-VT889RcXzVqA-HT1V2VExvspFbybsrnvHxvtbq7mzv_PD4-jKfH7x-t7-6qH0-HdliNOfiIjZQVWdIP7n-cvawPqie7u9PJm_uR59eP5Q2u0s_5nV2snc7fbyYpAfvG3ti3iTffgCpmQYKLQYAAA",
    "landingPage": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pa/reference-class-forecaster.html",
    "rules": [
      "Always produce three sections: Reference class, Outside-view estimate, Inside-view adjustment",
      "Derive the outside-view number from a real distribution of past cases",
      "State the outside view before any case-specific detail",
      "Make the inside-view adjustment bounded and directional",
      "Treat the outside view as the anchor, not the inside view"
    ],
    "capabilities": [
      "persona"
    ],
    "license": null,
    "econ": null,
    "signature": {
      "alg": "Ed25519",
      "sig": "WqyGvNJYGTIjMt5TVBLhpC0cOnX5f7IyiN3zpb5fOMb4rvdSIeTe71lliSA0C37JGcg26F1vDuscO4of4gefDg",
      "pub": "LJqAYw2pzVV9L8V4W6YmobS-Ucub90ROjDL-2Hyo9n8"
    }
  }
}