{
  "protocolVersion": "0.3.0",
  "name": "Expected-Value Estimator",
  "description": "Converts a decision under uncertainty into probability-weighted outcomes that sum to one expected-value number, then names what the answer hinges on.",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "provider": {
    "organization": "The Daily Synthesis",
    "url": "https://johnjboren.github.io"
  },
  "url": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pa/expected-value-estimator.html",
  "capabilities": {
    "streaming": false,
    "pushNotifications": false,
    "stateTransitionHistory": false
  },
  "defaultInputModes": [
    "text/plain"
  ],
  "defaultOutputModes": [
    "text/plain"
  ],
  "skills": [
    {
      "id": "expected-value-estimator",
      "name": "Expected-Value Estimator",
      "description": "Converts a decision under uncertainty into probability-weighted outcomes that sum to one expected-value number, then names what the answer hinges on.",
      "tags": [
        "expected-value",
        "probability",
        "decision-theory",
        "risk",
        "uncertainty"
      ],
      "examples": [
        "Should we spend $50k chasing this enterprise deal?"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "x-pocketagent": {
    "spec": "pocketagent-v1",
    "installUrl": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pocketagent-chat.html#pa=H4sIAAAAAAAAE41U227aQBD9lZHVhza1ESTco6iKGtKU0hBBC6JVH9b2gjfYu2YvGBKl395ZYycmD21fjNmdOXPOmRk_Olun33AdThLq9J3BLqWBpqE3I7GhMFCaJUQL6biOFLGNWAgDgeBbKjUQCGnAFBMcDA-pxGeA54RxvQd8CKAFHmwtXg3upAhNQGEpjARfxKEXE5_GGKAwDoFUDcZGByKhqg8xUxp0RCHEF8YDDaK4q5XUbBhRiq04UBJESCmVwic-ixlyeKtMkjC-AqTSeAeEhxiQU0F6-Ko0seQMZxoRZ31ITKxZGu_zUEy2iYLTZx3eIZmbxKeyBlPKFdNsi7X6YC3M2SqsGNMjIkIWZe39YAZMQSJQnCoA8EK4eVEboCNJVYTuANGQRQx12WP0PGRowjJmKTpwGWdkrw4acgkqB8DmLJlM8owXCoyqip6a7aeJqXL6P50CJ622puxG_7kb7ovj-Dpzq9oR7e6oUmKstudy5wVJS8kSBbE82IGJX0vHq3b5-8KuV21A55ZsZaRNvC3tZjw1-m_GYvCU7A9eEl1xNx-tcoJzV51frqPJKvfluOcIUmGI_8pED1GEtCeSqTX-VJbAwiHvEeNU4u58POyN-o_FqdTyMspWkZ3TcvqRONH_HE_X6uP5WKpSuXVUZVgwwhnFY8HtKCx3qPfRMUhxGgmDzmQ4xSlF89-06msIIqLyLYrQXso1lSlqtd6R-APmE0x82dqMcRdioejRkuIppBf12lnR2fdvmvX6-jwPzC86xYVnSx62EaNPbBR4-No5sVQuMLHbWr9aPQT3Ko6dA35TRAa_67VGo5wMbSRXwOmK2LGoOU_YG_xuIPWsR1tX95tPy8v2qLkLtvPx5FtjIaLbASE35pru23F382MwTJbDzpfBek4f5h3Wur5tm_bnXZjR1eR6vG4GE96Yb-bR8Gy_uGtfZXZgjI_wo-HmcpGdpg-zWW_UnTXn7UUi_Kn3PTB-rz4Z31-NvNObvejxrvP0BzDbva2QBQAA",
    "landingPage": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pa/expected-value-estimator.html",
    "rules": [
      "Always produce four sections: Outcomes, Estimates, EV, Sensitivity",
      "Probabilities must sum to one; state the unit of value",
      "Multiply probability by value and sum to one EV figure",
      "Name the input the EV is most sensitive to",
      "Say at what threshold the decision flips"
    ],
    "capabilities": [
      "persona"
    ],
    "license": null,
    "econ": null,
    "signature": {
      "alg": "Ed25519",
      "sig": "w9e5DjqGfA6L4xcvWORT1YohNEaaHuFey6l8qZEJmfJ7KEkWezW7i5FN6u6IxdwegRFOk4cRn1WqWhJ3yYP6Dw",
      "pub": "LJqAYw2pzVV9L8V4W6YmobS-Ucub90ROjDL-2Hyo9n8"
    }
  }
}