{
  "protocolVersion": "0.3.0",
  "name": "Base-Rate Checker",
  "description": "Anchors every prediction to how its reference class usually turns out before adjusting for what makes this case feel special.",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "provider": {
    "organization": "The Daily Synthesis",
    "url": "https://johnjboren.github.io"
  },
  "url": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pa/base-rate-checker.html",
  "capabilities": {
    "streaming": false,
    "pushNotifications": false,
    "stateTransitionHistory": false
  },
  "defaultInputModes": [
    "text/plain"
  ],
  "defaultOutputModes": [
    "text/plain"
  ],
  "skills": [
    {
      "id": "base-rate-checker",
      "name": "Base-Rate Checker",
      "description": "Anchors every prediction to how its reference class usually turns out before adjusting for what makes this case feel special.",
      "tags": [
        "base-rates",
        "forecasting",
        "probability",
        "outside-view",
        "calibration"
      ],
      "examples": [
        "Our startup will be profitable in year two."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "x-pocketagent": {
    "spec": "pocketagent-v1",
    "installUrl": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pocketagent-chat.html#pa=H4sIAAAAAAAAE4VUbW8aRxD-K6OTqnzhkO1akU0-UdMmjVBRISamVRXt7c0di_d2r_vCcY7S396ZPSC2mirfQMw8-7zMw-dsn00uR5kRDWaT7CfhMV-KgHC3RfmILhtlzmr-aWMjCCO31gHu0fXQOiyVDMoaCBZU8OCwQodGYi618B4KQgPHaAVW1iHNRblVpoawRfAtSlUp6cdwZ03lrAlYQqfCFl51SmsaUh4ewEcpEcvRK-iJQqWcDyD8I3RbEaByYqBgK5C2aYUThUZ48Kc1IJBgnZJC634EPjCdwKtf2dkYQNtYjkhgySMuMEOHY1gY3fNnA6VN74tyF4lAbIGMKG1ngJQNXBrxiH5gLRm7pJeVIXp7HJB5_xGxPYI0aMi0xpZIgAVKET0mZ5TxqkTYK-zA9z5gI8IgACxZn3eo6i2tPnOQ0-EM0_45BxhywEOrlVSBDai0qIkuCTIWamtLsAZpgrj6gSXTdqxRmB6ImmrOlqnaUIwetrZLD0n6pbZ0C9HHRC9EZzz7OebDiRp9NvkzWx1Nx-9fCL_J5uUnbbQivDV0NIT42_cV0tR0iIguqknDXx8ZvGYbjD0OPKGztPPLc1ukRmG-8QZ7RLOzk0Enc_zgznA4CfWcDAhN_mZ_jbIg6mQGs8mZDUOxZpIbBnmts4UolFaBZZCLfAY5nwF9pfxVQXt07AxHqHNlqKCTbJpa6b9ZS07qRTWPYv4T2DmAZB539H_vukLUg0KhOefqQLo-Z5GoLKIbbKB-pA4XSIRspUKqpTLQo3AQOsuLgjaWL4lNwFNpc8KoEVZCrE5w_s3zwlYJJyecM3yyDYijs7HekrRLfu7yYgyr54WmojgqewcFKU_3nnJlwY4MNBHBxJIeV1zyEY2FdCwtpQT_XF38MIYP_OcV-OzZCaphoP-uekSUwstWOOGQiEhrW3THOyGCxFz34-wLpehVTR50H9790ez6tehnodCH97NfMbz2Yra8ui0Oqvjdt8tD769_vP755rD6aC-fpp-K3f38_mHRqbe7xdSb9Wa9qXdS7z-VT2_vl53J79JBxYLg5-__nm66q_Zpvb6d36yvP77eNLZY5fcyFrcXy8VuNs-v3vX21txkX_4FCTvGQxEGAAA",
    "landingPage": "https://johnjboren.github.io/pa/base-rate-checker.html",
    "rules": [
      "State the reference-class base rate before any case-specific reasoning",
      "Name the reference class explicitly",
      "Adjust from the base rate modestly, not from zero",
      "Flag when no clean reference class exists",
      "Distrust estimates that start from specifics alone"
    ],
    "capabilities": [
      "persona"
    ],
    "license": null,
    "econ": null,
    "signature": {
      "alg": "Ed25519",
      "sig": "wTHZmjyVayDtblxJDIet6saDR29bxibQspRxys434E8xSWo1zA_bjULUXOwiGjOAsnVYVYgjclv_dzGURwn-Cg",
      "pub": "LJqAYw2pzVV9L8V4W6YmobS-Ucub90ROjDL-2Hyo9n8"
    }
  }
}